Exploration & Strategic Direction
“The normal state of your mind is that you have intuitive feelings and opinions about almost everything that comes your way. You like or dislike people long before you know much about them; you trust or distrust strangers without knowing why; you feel that an enterprise is bound to succeed without analyzing”.”
D. Kahneman
Before jumping into product development, it is essential to assess the market and competition, and to define a clear vision and strategy to avoid losing focus on the core objective.
Exploring and shaping strategic direction involves analyzing opportunities and determining which problems are worth solving. This phase is about aligning customer needs, market trends, and business goals to establish a strong and focused foundation for the product.
For digital products with endless possibilities, strategy is a critical process that helps product teams stay focused on their priorities. It includes defining the product vision and outlining how the team will execute that vision. A well-defined strategy provides clarity, motivates the team, and empowers members across the organization to make aligned decisions.
Strategy

Market Analysis
Conducting market analysis provides an outside-in perspective that delivers essential insights to inform strategic decision-making

Positioning and Differentiation
Particularly crucial for highly competitive products and markets to ensure the product stands out.

Customer Research and Product Discovery
Continuous exploration and assessment are paramount to identifying and validating meaningful product opportunities.

Segmentation and Targeting
Segmentation and targeting help focus on the right users to deliver greater value and achieve better product-market fit.

Product Vision
It is essential to know where the product is heading and why, serving as a guiding "north star."

Product Strategy & Business goals
Translating strategic decisions into actionable tasks and assigning responsibilities to relevant teams.

Conducting Market Analysis
Above all, even the best research and the most insightful analysis will be useless if they are not discussed. This problem jumps out at us when we look at postmortems
Olivier Sibony
Market Analysis is the process of gathering, analyzing, and interpreting data about the target market, customers, industry trends, competitors' products, and the competitive landscape. Effective research and competitive analysis are critical components of a product team’s strategy. They help teams understand market dynamics, user needs, and the competitive landscape, ensuring that products are not only relevant but also differentiated and valuable to users.
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Keep in mind that Market Analysis and Customer Research or Product Discovery are distinct yet interconnected processes. Market Analysis is a strategic activity that focuses on gaining insights into the broader market landscape and is externally oriented first, while Product Discovery is a tactical process aimed at solving specific user problems with the company's product.
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Despite their differences, these two processes are tightly linked. For instance, Market Analysis can highlight broader trends, such as an increased demand for automation, which the product team can translate into actionable product features by enhancing existing functionalities or developing new ones. Conversely, the Product Discovery process can be used to challenge assumptions or hypotheses formed during the Market Analysis phase, ensuring that product decisions are well-grounded.
In this section, we will focus on Market Analysis, which aims to answer critical strategic questions such as:
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What are the current trends in the market?
What does the competitive landscape look like?
Who are our customers?
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By addressing these questions, Market Analysis provides a foundational understanding to guide strategic decision-making and inform subsequent Product Discovery efforts.
Common Pitfalls and Their Associated Cognitive Biases
1. Seeking to Confirm Initial Assumptions
Confirmation bias - People seek information that confirms their existing beliefs and ignore conflicting evidence.
Selective Perception - Filtering information to favor what aligns with existing beliefs or preferences while ignoring contradictory data.
Expectation bias - The tendency for pre-existing expectations to influence perceptions and decisions.
2. Focusing on the Wrong Signals
Base Rate Fallacy - People ignore or undervalue the base rate (general statistical probability) of an event in favor of specific, anecdotal, or recent information.
Availability Heuristic - Individuals rely on immediate examples that come to mind when evaluating a decision, event, or likelihood of something happening.
Frequency Illusion - Person notices a specific concept, word, or product more frequently after recently becoming aware of it.
Attentional Bias - Focus disproportionately on certain types of information while neglecting other equally relevant data.
Framing Effect - People's decisions or judgments are influenced by the way information is presented, rather than the actual content of the information.
Anchoring bias - occurs when initial information disproportionately influences decisions or judgments, even if it is irrelevant or incomplete
Distinction Bias - People overemphasize small differences between options when comparing them side by side, even if those differences are insignificant or irrelevant in real-world decision-making
3. Overconfidence in Personal Knowledge
Overconfidence Bias - the tendency to overestimate one’s abilities or accuracy, leading to overly optimistic judgments and flawed decision-making
Hindsight Bias - The belief, after an event has occurred, that it was predictable or inevitable, even when it wasn’t.
Selective Perception Bias - Filtering information to favor what aligns with existing beliefs or preferences while ignoring contradictory data.
Survivorship Bias - Focusing on successful outcomes or entities while overlooking those that failed, leading to skewed conclusions and an incomplete understanding of the factors contributing to success or failure.
Normalcy Bias - The belief that things will continue to function as they have in the past, underestimating the possibility of disruption or extreme events.
4. When the Purpose Gets Lost
Information Bias - Seeking or valuing additional information, even when it does not impact decision-making, leading to unnecessary complexity.
Use Case - Kodak, Fuji, Sony
The cases of Kodak, Fuji, and Sony illustrate how companies can interpret the same market data in vastly different ways based on their history, culture, and strategic vision. In the 1990s, market data clearly indicated the rise of digital photography, signaling a significant disruption in the photography industry. Despite having access to the same insights, Kodak, Fuji, and Sony made strikingly different choices.
Kodak, relying on its market dominance and strong customer loyalty, decided to double down on its traditional film business. This overconfidence and resistance to adapt to the digital revolution ultimately led to its bankruptcy in 2012.
Fuji, in contrast, acknowledged the decline of analog photography and embraced diversification. It invested in digital photography technologies and expanded into entirely new industries, such as cosmetics and healthcare, ensuring its long-term survival and growth through strategic flexibility.
Sony, as a challenger in the market, saw the shift to digital photography as a transformative opportunity. Leveraging its expertise in electronics, Sony made a bold strategic move to embrace the digital trend and emerged as a leader in the digital camera market.
This case study underscores how identical market data can inspire vastly different strategies, highlighting the critical importance of adaptability, innovation, and the ability to challenge assumptions in navigating disruptive changes.
Overcoming Cognitive Bias in Market Analysis
Structuring the Process for Objective Analysis
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Have we used a structured methodology or framework?
A structured approach ensures balanced and relevant data collection and analysis. -
Have we maintained clarity?
Focus on relevant data, avoid overcomplication, and step back when necessary to maintain objectivity. -
Have we ensured neutral data presentation?
Present information in multiple formats and delay sharing initial assumptions to avoid anchoring bias.
Broadening Perspectives and Encouraging Critical Thinking
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Have we broadened perspectives?
Leverage diverse data sources and combine quantitative with qualitative insights. -
Have we encouraged critical thinking?
Promote a questioning mindset, explore alternative hypotheses, and involve cross-functional teams to challenge assumptions.
Building Flexibility for Evolving Contexts
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Have we reviewed scenario planning?
Use scenario planning to explore potential disruptions and future outcomes. -
Have we planned to continuously revisit data and assumptions?
Regularly update data and assumptions to stay aligned with changing market conditions.
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Exploring Opportunities through Customer Research and Product Discovery
What people say, what people do, and what people say they do are entirely different things.
Margaret Mead’s, American anthropologists
Product Discovery is a decision-making process aimed at understanding user needs, problems, and pain points to design solutions that provide real value. It helps explore and validate ideas before committing to development, providing answers to the question of what should be built and why. At its core, Product Discovery ensures alignment between the product offering and user expectations.
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Every product begins with a Product Discovery phase, but this process is not a one-time event; it is continuous and should be integrated throughout the entire product lifecycle. Depending on the objective, Product Discovery can be categorized into two types: exploration and validation.
Exploratory Discovery focuses on identifying and understanding the problem. The product team engages with users or customers through interviews and inquiries to gain deep insights before imagining a technical solution. This stage takes place upstream in the development process. Harvard Innovation Labs recommends interviewing around 200 targeted users before transitioning into solution design and validation.
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Validation Discovery, on the other hand, is centered on testing a proposed solution. The team prepares prototypes or mock-ups to challenge assumptions, refine the user experience, and iterate through a cycle of prototyping, testing, and learning. In both cases, Product Discovery plays a crucial role in defining purpose, aligning the product with customer expectations, prioritizing features, and mitigating the risk of basing decisions on incorrect assumptions.
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According to a 2019 study by Nielsen Norman Group involving 436 UX practitioners, Product Discovery can reduce the risk of failure by 75%, and projects incorporating this process are 59% more likely to succeed.
Product teams can leverage Product Discovery as a growth approach that helps focus efforts, reduce market, technical, and business risks, and avoid wasting resources. More specifically, Product Discovery supports gaining a deep understanding of the user’s problem, prioritizing potential solutions, and building confidence in the product’s ability to deliver both user and business value.
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Sometimes, especially in B2B, the clients (decision-makers) and users (end-users) are different individuals. In such cases, Product Discovery must be adapted to ensure the needs of both groups are understood and balanced effectively. The product team must address the needs, motivations, and pain points of each group separately. Segmentation can be applied to ensure all needs are covered. For example, when working on a purchasing tool, different users within the company - such as procurement teams, approvers, and employees placing orders - need to be represented in the process. This ensures the product serves the entire organization effectively.
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To be successful, Product Discovery should be well-prepared, with clear objectives and scope set in advance, and priorities identified upstream. If there are several steps in discovery, all questions and different assumptions to test should be anticipated to avoid framed questions. It is better to favor quick prototyping and testing rather than striving to build a perfect prototype.
There are various methods to conduct Product Discovery, including user interviews, surveys, usability testing, customer journey mapping, opportunity solution trees, and A/B testing, among others. A good product team never stops iterating to improve their product. For example, Netflix continuously engages in the product discovery process and employs an A/B testing team to refine its offerings. The company began as a DVD-by-mail service, iterated into online movie streaming, and eventually evolved into a producer of original content.
Product Discovery can help solve many questions, but we cannot simply ask customers what they want because cognitive biases will interfere with the answers. It is more effective to focus on what the user or customer truly needs rather than what they believe they need.
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To ensure successful Product Discovery, teams should also foster cross-functional collaboration, involving key internal stakeholders such as delivery, marketing, and tech teams. To avoid confusion, it is essential to define upfront which type of feedback is expected from each team and how their input will shape the discovery process.
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Common Pitfalls and Their Associated Cognitive Biases
1. Neglecting the Product Discovery Phase
Overconfidence bias - the tendency to overestimate one’s abilities or accuracy, leading to overly optimistic judgments and flawed decision-making
2. Influence Discovery Insights
Experimenter’s Bias - When researchers unintentionally influence participants or data to align with their hypotheses.
Observer-Expectancy bias - Skewing data interpretation or observations due to the observer’s subjective expectations or beliefs.
Social Desirability - The tendency to present oneself in a favorable light by overstating socially accepted behaviors or attitudes while minimizing undesirable traits, especially in surveys or interviews.
Framing - People's decisions or judgments are influenced by the way information is presented, rather than the actual content of the information.
Self Consistency - The tendency to perceive one’s past attitudes and behaviors as consistent with current ones, even if they have changed.
Expectation - The tendency for pre-existing expectations to influence perceptions and decisions.
Confirmation - People seek information that confirms their existing beliefs and ignore conflicting evidence.
3. Contextual Influence
Context Effect - the influence of environmental factors on one's perception of a stimulus.
4. Bad Framing or Misguided Focus
Base Rate Fallacy - people ignore or undervalue the base rate (general statistical probability) of an event in favor of specific, anecdotal, or recent information
Zero-Risk Bias - Preferring to eliminate small risks entirely rather than reducing larger risks, even when the latter offers greater overall benefit.
Attentional Bias - focus disproportionately on certain types of information while neglecting other equally relevant data.
Overcoming Cognitive Bias in Product Discovery
Maintaining Strategic Focus
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Are we clear about the problem we want to solve?
Defining the problem ensures that Product Discovery has a clear scope and focus. -
Have we chosen the right metrics to measure success?
Defining key success metrics upfront helps focus on priorities and measure the impact of Product Discovery effectively.
Structuring the Product Discovery Process
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Do we have the internal expertise to carry out Product Discovery, or should we consider seeking external support?
Engaging an external agency can be a valuable solution when internal capabilities are lacking or when an impartial, unbiased discovery process is needed. -
Have we chosen a representative sample of users and customers?
Validating the target audience is essential for gathering relevant and unbiased insights. -
Are the environment and conditions of Product Discovery favorable enough to obtain transparent and useful insights? Does the situation call for conducting ethnographic research?
Creating the right context helps uncover why the product is valuable to the customer. -
Have we challenged the way Product Discovery will be conducted and the questions we will ask?
Questions should be open-ended, neutral, unbiased, and easy to understand, even for non-expert users, to avoid leading responses.
Making Sense of Insights and Moving Ahead
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How will the product fit into the existing ecosystem?
Ensuring alignment with other products, services, and customer workflows helps enhance integration and usability. -
Have we scheduled the next Product Discovery?
Product Discovery is an iterative process, and planning the next cycle ensures continuous learning and improvement.

Defining the Product Vision
A good product vision inspires ordinary people to create extraordinary products.”
Marty Cagan
The Product Vision represents a clear and compelling long-term aspiration for what the product aims to achieve and how it will create value for users. It serves as a guiding "north star" for the product team and organization, aligning stakeholders around a shared purpose while providing motivation and clarity.
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While Product Positioning ensures market relevance in the present, the Product Vision defines the future direction for the product. Both Product Vision and Product Positioning are crucial for driving strategic alignment and delivering value to users.
According to Marty Cagan, Product Vision should focus on how the product will improve the lives of customers over the next 3 to 10 years. The Product Vision explains how the product team intends to deliver on the company mission and is closely linked to the Product Strategy, which outlines how the team plans to execute the Product Vision. Crafting a compelling product vision could start with analyzing the Jobs to Be Done (JTBD), which we will address in detail later in this chapter. Understanding the JTBD helps establish a clear direction for the product by focusing on the real needs and tasks customers are trying to accomplish. This insight ensures that the product vision is not just about features but is rooted in solving actual customer problems, leading to a product that delivers meaningful value and addresses specific customer goals.
A strong Product Vision should be:
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Customer-focused: to prioritize user needs and solve real problems. - Fall in love with the problem, not with the solution.
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Aligned with business goals: to ensure it supports the company's objectives and long-term strategy. – “Start with why” – Simon Sinek
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Adaptable to change: to remain flexible to market shifts and evolving user expectations. - “Be stubborn on vision, but flexible on details” - Jeff Bezos
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Straightforward, emotional, inspiring and ambitious enough to motivate people.
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For a single-product company, Product Vision and the company vision are often the same. Here are some compelling product visions from leading technology companies:
Google: "To provide access to the world’s information in one click" – This vision highlights Google’s global ambitions and focus on user-centricity.
Uber: "Evolving the way the world moves" – Uber’s vision goes beyond taxi-booking, supporting its differentiation and expansion into food delivery and other services, creating a suite of products.
Zoom: "To make video communication frictionless" – Zoom captured a significant market share during the COVID-19 period by emphasizing "frictionless" usability. This allowed it to compete successfully against long-established players like Skype, setting a new standard for ease of use in the industry.
Shopify: "To make commerce better for everyone" - Shopify’s vision includes not only paying clients but also users, aiming to ensure a seamless commerce experience "for everyone."
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Product Managers should regularly review the Product Vision based on market feedback to ensure it stays relevant, inspiring, and capable of guiding the team toward its goals.
Product Vision should be known and understood across the entire organization - from the architecture team to marketing, from investors to partners, and from current employees to future ones. A well-defined product vision provides meaning to every stage of the product journey, from development to usage.
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A well-defined product vision helps prioritize the roadmap and, when it is clear and widely understood, enables all stakeholders to comprehend decision-making processes and empowers them to make autonomous decisions. By providing clarity on the product's direction, Product Vision also supports the architecture team in creating sustainable product architecture.
Product Vision should also be flexible enough to allow for pivot, when necessary, while remaining aligned with the company’s core goals. In 1996, Harvard Business Review published an article about company vision, which is generally more value-oriented and focuses on the entire organization, encompassing various products and services. However, the principle of flexibility can also be applied to the Product Vision: "Truly great companies understand the difference between what should never change and what should be open for change, between what is generally sacred and what is not."​
Common Pitfalls and Their Associated Cognitive Biases
1. Failure to Pivot
Sunk Cost Fallacy - individuals continue investing in a project, decision, or activity based on the time, money, or resources they have already spent, rather than evaluating its current and future value.
2. Overlooking Internal Communication
False Consensus Effect - a cognitive bias where individuals assume their beliefs, behaviors, and traits are more common and widely shared than they actually are.
Curse of Knowledge - Difficulty imagining what it’s like not to know something, leading to assumptions that others have the same knowledge or understanding.
Use Case - Nokia, Apple, BlackBerry
The Nokia use case is a good example of how maintaining the status quo in product vision and misalignment with evolving customer expectations can accelerate product disruption. Nokia dominated the mobile market from the late 1990s to the early 2000s, rapidly evolving and introducing numerous innovations, including the first mobile game (Snake), long-lasting battery life, and customizable alerts.
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However, when Apple introduced the first iPhone in 2007 with touchscreen technology, Nokia dismissed it as a niche product and kept its vision tied to physical keyboards. Nokia also failed to adapt to the shift toward user-friendly software ecosystems focused on delivering enhanced user experience, as pioneered by Apple and later Google with Android. Similarly, BlackBerry exhibited the same lack of flexibility in its product vision, ultimately failing to meet the new customer preference for a better user experience.
Both cases highlight the critical importance of aligning a Product Vision with evolving customer needs and remaining adaptable in the face of market disruptions.
Overcoming Cognitive Bias When Defining the Product Vision
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Have we challenged assumptions?
This involves regularly reviewing market trends and conducting Product Discovery to anticipate potential disruptions and avoid relying on outdated or unverified beliefs. -
Have we communicated proactively?
Ensure the vision is clearly articulated, including the reasoning behind it, to foster alignment and understanding among all stakeholders.

Assessing Product Segmentation and Targeting
Everyone is not your customer.
Seth Godin.
Segmentation and Targeting involve identifying and focusing on specific categories of customers that share common characteristics, behaviours, or needs. These two processes are part of the STP model (Segmentation, Targeting, Positioning), widely used in strategy to define an efficient Marketing Mix for products.
Segmentation is the process of dividing the market into smaller, more manageable groups. For product teams, the purpose of efficient segmentation is not only to better understand different customer groups that share similar characteristics, but also to bring clarity to the product’s value proposition. There are several types of criteria used for segmentation: demographics (e.g., age, income), geography (e.g., region, country), firmographics (e.g., company size, industry), behaviour (e.g., product usage patterns, engagement), and psychographics (e.g., values, attitudes, tech-savviness). Efficient segmentation, however, is dynamic and should be tailored around customer needs. This approach brings new perspectives on how we perceive the product and ensures it serves specific purposes, such as finding the right positioning for a new product or pivoting an existing one. Product segmentation typically differs from brand segmentation, particularly in large companies with diverse product portfolios.
Once segmentation is completed, the product team can address targeting.
Targeting is the process of identifying the most promising customer segment, which becomes a crucial part of positioning and differentiation, as well as the definition of the product strategy. Proper targeting helps product teams focus on relevant product development and effective resource allocation. Segmentation and Targeting help define the right priorities, provide clarity for the go-to-market strategy, and assist sales and marketing teams in crafting a clear message.
Segmentation is considered a prerequisite for effective targeting. These two processes are essential steps for personalization and are particularly useful in product-driven tech companies where scaling is a key strategy. In such organizations, product teams tend to avoid product customization, which is more common in project-driven companies.
There is a significant difference between personalization and customization. Personalization involves tailoring specific features or experiences for a segment deemed valuable enough to justify targeted development and resource allocation. Customization, on the other hand, places personalization in the hands of customers, allowing them to adapt the product or experience to meet their specific needs. While both approaches focus on user-specific development and help customers engage with the product, their business implications differ. Product-led organizations typically avoid customization because it requires ongoing management, such as regular updates and revisions, which is resource-consuming.
Customization may be viable if it can be automated efficiently or handled by a dedicated project team. Yet, product-led organizations prefer to avoid this approach because project teams are not designed to manage a piece of the product and ensure its lifecycle; their role is typically limited to time-bound implementations. Product customization is often practiced by companies targeting enterprise customers and is usually linked to the RFP (Request for Proposal) process. However, well-managed upstream segmentation can help prevent the need for recurring customization.
Segmentation is widely used in B2B, B2C, and B2G organizations. To make segmentation clear and actionable, teams often create buyer personas and map customer journeys. Customer journey mapping helps identify pain points in product usage and provides valuable insights into customer needs. It also supports the design of go-to-market strategies and the development of effective marketing materials.
A Buyer Persona is a semi-fictional representation of your customer, designed to help internal teams better understand the specific motivations, preferences, and challenges they aim to address with their product strategy. This method transforms abstract data about customer segments into tangible and actionable insights, such as "Victor, a busy father and executive of a large international company seeking ways to optimize his work-life balance." But why do we focus on representing a single individual to embody an entire group, rather than relying solely on broader customer segments? This approach leverages the Identifiable Victim Effect, a cognitive bias that makes people more likely to empathize with and take action for a single identifiable individual than for an abstract group or concept.
This bias occurs because it is far easier for us to connect emotionally with one person than to relate to an impersonal group. When we see the challenges or motivations of an individual, their story resonates more deeply, driving action and engagement.
The Identifiable Victim Effect can be used ethically to inspire empathy and drive positive outcomes, but it has also been exploited in manipulative ways. For instance, charity organizations often highlight the story of a single individual in their campaigns. Studies consistently show that donations increase when a personal and emotional story is shared, compared to a general appeal to help a group. This bias leverages our innate tendency to connect more deeply with individual narratives rather than abstract statistics.
A similar dynamic is often observed in political propaganda. While not definitively proven, the infamous quote attributed to Soviet dictator Josef Stalin encapsulates this idea: “The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic.” This illustrates the power of a single relatable story versus the overwhelming and impersonal nature of large-scale events.
The effect is also evident in social movements, which are often catalyzed by the story of a single individual who becomes a symbol of the cause. Examples include George Floyd for Black Lives Matter, Malala Yousafzai’s I Am Malala for Girls’ Right to Education, and the Harvey Weinstein case for the #MeToo Movement.
To segment customers, product teams can utilize data from customer surveys or internal company resources. The criteria for segmentation are typically aligned with the product vision and company mission, while targeting is usually tied to the overall business strategy. Both segmentation and targeting lay the foundation for defining product positioning, which is then translated into the product strategy.
Both operational and strategic segmentation are purpose-driven. Operational segmentation focuses on immediate and practical applications, while strategic segmentation serves as a framework aimed at defining positioning and aligning with overall strategy. Segmentation and targeting should be reviewed regularly to ensure it supports a competitive product position and adapts to market changes. The Geoffrey Moore Curve, also known as the Technology Adoption Life Cycle, explains how five distinct groups of customers - Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority, and Laggards - adopt new technology over time. Each group seeks different benefits from the same product, driven by their unique priorities, risk tolerance, and motivations. This implies that the targeted audience will vary depending on where your product is in its life cycle.
The rise of AI has facilitated hyper-segmentation, which is already widely adopted by industries like retail, hospitality, and airlines. However, this type of segmentation is more effective in downstream processes, such as marketing campaigns or personalizing customer experiences (e.g., offering specific product options). It is less effective as an upstream process, such as strategic segmentation for defining positioning and product strategy. While hyper-segmentation can complement strategic efforts, it cannot replace the broader, long-term segmentation required for sustainable product development and market alignment.
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There are three potential pitfalls, driven by cognitive biases, that can arise during the product segmentation and targeting process. These pitfalls can lead to a significant waste of human resources, time, and money if not properly addressed.
Common Pitfalls and Their Associated Cognitive Biases
1. Neglecting Segmentation and Targeting
Status Quo - Favoring current conditions over change, even when alternatives may offer significant benefits.
Survivorship Bias - Focusing on successful outcomes or entities while overlooking those that failed, leading to skewed conclusions and an incomplete understanding of the factors contributing to success or failure.
2. Ineffective Segmentation
Availability Heuristic - Individuals rely on immediate examples that come to mind when evaluating a decision, event, or likelihood of something happening.
Stereotyping Bias - Generalizing characteristics, behaviors, or traits to individuals based on their membership in a particular group
Optimism Bias - Overestimating the likelihood of positive outcomes while underestimating risks.
3. Misguided Understanding of Insights
Fundamental Attribution Error - Attributing others’ actions to their character while overlooking situational factors.
Base Rate Fallacy - People ignore or undervalue the base rate (general statistical probability) of an event in favor of specific, anecdotal, or recent information.
Clustering illusion - The tendency to see patterns in random data, believing clusters of events or occurrences are meaningful.
False Consensus Bias - individuals assume their beliefs, behaviors, and traits are more common and widely shared than they actually are.
Use Case - Google Glass & Spotify
Google Glass, launched as a revolutionary wearable device in 2012, is a clear example of the lack of precise segmentation and targeting. The product attempted to target both companies and consumers but failed to deliver clear value to either audience. By the time the company tried to correct this error and refocus on enterprise applications, it was too late to recover.
Spotify, on the other hand, is an example of successful hyper-personalization, enabled by segmentation based on behaviour (how users listen to music) rather than demographics (who they are). The introduction of personalized playlists like "Discover Weekly" and "Wrapped" made customers feel understood and valued, strengthening engagement and loyalty.
Overcoming Cognitive Bias in Product Segmentation and Targeting
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Broadening Perspectives Through Collaboration and Diversity of Thought
- Are we involving diverse perspectives?
Including cross-functional teams - such as marketing, sales, and design - in the segmentation process can help reduce individual biases. However, it's important to remain aware of social biases, such as groupthink or conformity pressure, which may influence decision-making in group settings.
- Are our personas comprehensive and reflective of real customers?
Explore different segmentation approaches and build personas based on large and diverse samples to ensure a more accurate representation of your audience and avoid relying on stereotypes.
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Grounding Segmentation in Data and Validation
- Are we validating segmentation and targeting with data?
Use diverse data sources—such as surveys, analytics, and focus groups—to validate segmentation decisions and ensure they reflect real customer behaviors and needs.
- Have we accounted for statistical representation in our datasets?
Test personas and segmentation strategies with a broader audience to validate their relevance.
- Are we considering multiple segmentation strategies?
Explore alternative segmentation methods to identify the most effective approach.
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Continuously Challenging and Adapting
- Are we challenging our assumptions? Are we differentiating between personal beliefs and actual market data?
Avoid relying solely on readily available information or preconceptions about customer behavior.
- Are we regularly revisiting and refining segmentation?
Update segmentation regularly to reflect market changes, new customer data, and evolving product strategy. Incorporate scenario planning to anticipate potential future shifts and stay ahead of emerging trends.

Identifying Product Positioning and Shaping Product Differentiation
Positioning is the place a product occupies in people’s minds.
Martina Lauchengco
Product Positioning defines how a product is perceived in the market by its users in comparison to competitors. It is shaped by what customers see, hear, and experience with the product, set against the broader market context.
While companies can influence positioning by adapting product development, customer experience, and marketing campaigns to emphasize the desired perception, they cannot fully control all market feedback about the product. However, when the positioning is well-defined and clear, the marketing team can effectively address and manage any overlooked aspects.
Positioning involves understanding the marketing mix and must be tailored to specific segments and market contexts, considering competitors and market dynamics. For international companies, achieving consistent positioning across all markets is particularly challenging due to local competitors, cultural differences, and legal constraints, all of which can significantly impact product perception. In an international context, it is essential to clearly define what will be managed globally and what will be delegated to local teams, allowing them to adapt and implement regional specifications effectively.
To reinforce positioning and enhance its stickiness, companies can craft compelling positioning statement or story that are used both internally and externally. These narratives, supported by strategic marketing campaigns, are essential in shaping the product’s perception and solidifying its position in the market.
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A strong Product Positioning highlights the importance of customers and their decision-making process. When crafting positioning, product teams should focus on addressing the following questions:
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What dimensions do consumers use to evaluate product offerings in the industry or category?
How important is each of these dimensions in the decision-making process?
How do you compare to competitors on these dimensions?
What decision-making processes do customers follow?
We can't shape a Product's Positioning overnight; it is a long-term process that requires careful alignment with the Product Vision and Strategy, as well as consistency with the company's overall positioning, to achieve effective and impactful results.
While Product Positioning is not the same as Product Differentiation, the two must work together to create a cohesive and compelling market presence.
Differentiation refers to a product’s unique attributes or qualities that emphasize its competitive edge and help it stand out in a crowded market. While every product has a position—whether intentionally crafted or passively established, not all products have effective differentiation. Moreover, simply creating differentiation isn’t enough; it must be perceived as such by the target audience. Achieving meaningful differentiation is a long-term process.
A strong Product Differentiation is not just a set of features that competitors can easily replicate. Instead, it should be sustainable, and deeply anchored in the product, processes, and company culture. It contributes to customer loyalty, gives the company a competitive advantage, and provides a clear reason for customers to choose this product over others. Additionally, well-crafted differentiation makes the product more resilient to price fluctuations.
When Product Differentiation is established, defining a Unique Value Proposition (UVP) becomes much easier. Differentiation is especially critical in saturated markets, where standing out is necessary. To be effective, differentiation must be actively supported by marketing campaigns, ensuring it is evident and clear to customers, partners, and internal stakeholders.
The questions to consider when defining your Product Differentiation are similar to those asked when building a successful start-up to compete with established companies. These include:
What do my clients want that other players cannot provide?
What are their pain points, and what currently satisfies them?
What could make them even happier than they are today?
Ultimately, the focus should always remain on the customer first, even when leveraging revolutionary technology. By prioritizing customer needs and desires, differentiation can address unmet expectations and establish a lasting competitive advantage.
Here’s a comparison between Product Vision, Product Positioning, Product Differentiation, and Value Proposition highlighting their distinctions and examples:
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We have identified three pitfalls, driven by cognitive biases, that may occur when the product team defines the product’s positioning and differentiation.

Common Pitfalls and Their Associated Cognitive Biases
1. “Me too” Positioning
Bandwagon Effect - Adopting beliefs, behaviors, or trends simply because they are popular or widely accepted by others.
2. Self-Referential Positioning
Conservatism Bias - The tendency to insufficiently update beliefs when presented with new evidence, favoring prior assumptions over fresh data.
Anchoring Bias - occurs when initial information disproportionately influences decisions or judgments, even if it is irrelevant or incomplete.
Illusion of Validity - Overconfidence in the accuracy of judgments or predictions based on limited or irrelevant information.
Overconfidence Effect - the tendency to overestimate one’s abilities or accuracy, leading to overly optimistic judgments and flawed decision-making
False Consensus Effect - a cognitive bias where individuals assume their beliefs, behaviors, and traits are more common and widely shared than they actually are.
3. Confusing Positioning with Aspirations or Action Plans
Recency Effect - Better recall or emphasis on the most recently presented information.
Focusing Effect - Placing too much emphasis on a single aspect of a situation while neglecting other equally important factors.
Distinction Bias - People overemphasize small differences between options when comparing them side by side, even if those differences are insignificant or irrelevant in real-world decision-making.
Leveraging Cognitive Biases in Defining Product Positioning and Differentiation
Aligning Teams Around a Clear Vision
Focusing Effect - Placing too much emphasis on a single aspect of a situation while neglecting other equally important factors.
Standing Out in a Competitive Market
Von Restorff Effect - when multiple homogeneous stimuli are presented, the stimulus that differs from the rest is more likely to be remembered
Boosting Customer Satisfaction and Loyalty
Post-Purchase Rationalization - Justifying a purchase after it is made by overemphasizing its positive aspects and minimizing negatives.
Use Case - Segway
Segway is a prime example of a product that missed its market positioning by focusing too heavily on its revolutionary technology. Introduced in 2001 as a groundbreaking transportation device, Segway struggled to define its use case compared to existing solutions. It was too big for sidewalks, too slow for streets, too heavy to carry into offices, required battery charging, and, with a price tag of $5,000, was too expensive for mass-market adoption.
While the Segway launch was aspirational, showcasing unprecedented technology, it failed to define a clear target audience, articulate the value it delivered, and account for the legal, cultural, and sociological aspects of urban mobility. These oversights significantly limited its adoption and prevented it from establishing a strong position in the market.
Despite its failure to reposition in time, Segway laid the foundation for the next generation of electric transportation devices, such as electric scooters, which successfully addressed the practical and economic challenges that Segway failed to meet. When Segway ceased production in 2020, it left the business world with a significant lesson: the critical importance of defining a clear and well-aligned market positioning.
Overcoming Cognitive Bias in Product Positioning and Differentiation
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Maintain a Customer-Centric Mindset
- Have we maintained a customer focus?
This means identifying all dimensions customers use to evaluate the product and prioritizing what truly matters to them by understanding their pain points and preferences, rather than relying on perceived differences.
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Broaden the Evaluation Scope
- Have we evaluated the product from a holistic perspective?
This involves considering the overall value proposition, including price, usability, and customer support, rather than focusing solely on isolated features.
- Have we conducted a broad market analysis and balanced multiple factors?
This includes evaluating the entire market landscape, considering trends, competitor strategies, and diverse customer feedback, to ensure all relevant factors are incorporated into Product Positioning and Differentiation.
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Validate, Simplify, and Ensure Long-Term Relevance
- Have we tested our assumptions with diverse stakeholders?
This involves validating the Product Positioning and Differentiation with customers and other stakeholders, and continuously monitoring feedback to refine and adjust as needed.
- Is the defined Differentiation (and Positioning) simple, clear, credible, and sustainable?
If it relies on a feature that is easy to replicate, it is neither sustainable nor durable enough to warrant investing all resources. Differentiation should extend beyond a single feature and reflect a broader, more robust value proposition.

Leveraging Cognitive Biases in Defining Product Positioning and Differentiation
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Aligning Teams Around a Clear Vision
Focusing Effect (linked to Anchoring Bias) occurs when people place excessive emphasis on a single aspect of a situation while neglecting other equally important factors. By effectively evangelizing the product’s positioning and differentiation among internal stakeholders, this bias helps maintain focus on the core value the product delivers. It also enables other stakeholders to align their priorities effectively. A well-crafted and supported positioning message increases "stickiness" for the differentiated value among customers, encouraging them to focus on the highlighted benefits that set the product apart from competitors. In essence, a clearly differentiated message, reinforced by relevant marketing campaigns and strong internal product evangelization, can solidify your positioning.
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Standing Out in a Competitive Market
Von Restorff Effect states that a stimulus standing out from a group of similar items is more likely to be remembered. A strong and distinctive differentiation ensures that the product is more noticeable to clients. Effective product differentiation captures attention and leaves a 65 lasting impression, while 'me too' positioning only serves to highlight a differentiated competitor in a homogenous market.
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Boosting Customer Satisfaction and Loyalty
Post-Purchase Rationalization refers to the tendency of customers - as human beings - to justify their purchase decisions by focusing on the positive aspects of the product or experience, even if the choice wasn't entirely rational. A clear and compelling "why," conveyed through well-structured positioning messaging and concrete product proofs, ensures that customers feel confident in their decision, reinforcing their satisfaction and loyalty after the purchase.
When applied ethically, these biases enable product teams and marketing professionals to craft messaging that resonates deeply with customers and stakeholders. This approach fosters clearer understanding, broader acceptance, and stronger engagement, ultimately supporting the success of the product.

Defining Product Strategy
People think focus means saying yes to the thing you’ve got to focus on. But that’s not what it means at all. It means saying no to the hundred other good ideas.
Steve Jobs
Product Strategy is a structured approach to turning the Product Vision into action while ensuring alignment with business objectives. It defines why and how to focus on specific markets, segments, and problems while ensuring the right allocation of resources. However, Product Strategy is not just about choosing where to focus - it is equally about determining what will not be addressed and deprioritizing aspects that are less critical to achieving the Product Vision.
A common mistake is reducing Product Strategy to a Product Roadmap or a list of features meant to achieve business goals. In reality, Product Strategy guides the roadmap, which is a tactical tool, but strategy is not just about solving isolated problems, it defines what the team is trying to achieve and what truly matters. It focuses on solving customer problems in alignment with the Product Vision while translating insights into measurable actions.
A strong Product Strategy prioritizes one target market at a time, puts customer needs ahead of competitors’ moves, aligns with Business Strategy, and drives the go-to-market approach. It must be well-defined yet flexible enough to adapt to rapidly changing market conditions and technological shifts.
We should recall that there is a difference between Product Strategy and Business Strategy68. While they are certainly interconnected, they serve different purposes at different organizational levels. Business Strategy defines the overall direction of the company, where it is going and how it will succeed, while Product Strategy focuses on how the product contributes to this success and delivers value to customers.
Simply defining a Product Strategy is not enough, it must be clearly communicated and gain buy-in from key stakeholders, particularly those involved in shaping it. These stakeholders should be engaged early in the process to align on conclusions upfront and avoid relying on diplomacy to reach a compromise later.
The process of evangelizing the strategy, discussed later in this document, is crucial for balancing focus with internal alignment.
The purpose of Product Strategy goes beyond providing clear direction and prioritizing the roadmap. It also helps prevent misalignment and frequent internal conflicts over priorities, guides the structuring of product teams, and even strengthens investor confidence in the organization's stability.
Product Strategy serves as the bridge between product vision and operational implementation, offering an actionable plan to achieve business goals. It must be data-driven, but not just based on any data - only relevant and well-defined metrics should be used to refine the strategy and pivot when necessary.
In companies that use the OKR (Objectives and Key Results) framework, Product Strategy is broken down into measurable goals, allowing teams to track progress and success effectively.
Cognitive biases can have significant consequences on product teams when defining a Product Strategy. There are five main pitfalls that cognitive biases can trigger during the strategy definition process, potentially leading to inefficiencies, misalignment, and internal conflict.
Common Pitfalls and Their Associated Cognitive Biases
1. Jumping Into Action
Action bias - people tend to favor action over inaction, even when there is no indication that doing so would point towards a better result.
Availability heuristic - Individuals rely on immediate examples that come to mind when evaluating a decision, event, or likelihood of something happening.
Bandwagon effect - Adopting beliefs, behaviors, or trends simply because they are popular or widely accepted by others.
Social Norms bias - We have evolved to crave human contact and fear rejection; following social norms improves our chances of being accepted by other people.
Anchoring bias - occurs when initial information disproportionately influences decisions or judgments, even if it is irrelevant or incomplete
Overconfidence bias - the tendency to overestimate one’s abilities or accuracy, leading to overly optimistic judgments and flawed decision-making
2. Undefined Strategic Direction
Omission bias - people judge harmful actions (commissions) as more morally wrong or blameworthy than equally harmful inactions (omissions).
Choice Overload bias - also known as overchoice, choice paralysis, or the paradox of choice, describes how people get overwhelmed when they are presented with many options.
Groupthink bias - a psychological phenomenon in which people strive to maintain cohesion and reach consensus within a group
3. Sticking to the Status Quo
Status Quo bias - Favoring current conditions over change, even when alternatives may offer significant benefits.
Sunk Cost Fallacy - individuals continue investing in a project, decision, or activity based on the time, money, or resources they have already spent, rather than evaluating its current and future value.
Loss Aversion - The tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring equivalent gains, leading to risk-averse behavior.
Sunflower bias - a cognitive bias in which people tend to agree with the most dominant or assertive person in a group.
4. Underestimating Time and Complexity
Planning fallacy - Underestimating the time, costs, or risks involved in completing tasks, even when past experiences suggest otherwise..
Optimism bias - Overestimating the likelihood of positive outcomes while underestimating risks.
5. A Strategy No One Knows About
False Consensus Fallacy - individuals assume their beliefs, behaviors, and traits are more common and widely shared than they actually are.
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Use Case - Tesla Cybertruck
A prime example of the planning fallacy is the Tesla Cybertruck. Elon Musk initially announced its launch for 2021, but it was ultimately released in 2023, and questions about its large-scale availability remain. This optimistic prediction underestimated manufacturing challenges due to the vehicle’s unique angular design, difficulties in sourcing materials, supply chain disruptions during the Covid period, and hurdles in obtaining legislative approval.
Overcoming Cognitive Bias in Product Strategy
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Challenging Assumptions and Learning from Experience
- Have we challenged our strategy?
The product team can engage a Red Team or use a premortem approach to critically evaluate their strategy. It may also be helpful to apply a "fire myself" mindset.
- Have we reviewed our postmortem?
Learning from past strategies strengthens future decision-making.
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Structuring Decision-Making and Evaluation
- Have we employed a decision-making framework?
A structured approach ensures balanced evaluation of all options with focus on what matters most.
- Have we carefully estimated time and cost?
Breaking down the plan and benchmarking against market averages helps avoid the planning fallacy.
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Ensuring Strategic Alignment and Culture
- Is our product strategy fully aligned with our product vision and broader business strategy?
- Do we have a structured communication plan in place?